ارزیابی پارامترهای دما و بارندگی با استفاده از مدل ریزمقیاس نمایی SDSM در شهرستان بیرجند

Predicted rainfall and temperature is one of the most important issues in the planning and management of water resources. To use General Circulation Models GCM models in the study of water resources, it is necessary to use different methods to make them as small scale. In this study, The SDSM model was run using outputs of Hadcm3 models. Based on the results of downscaling data of SDSM model two climatic parameters in three period of 20 years under scenarios A2 and B2 of the Hadcm3 model, were evaluated for Birjand synoptic stations. Based on the results, the temperature values are more correlated to observe data were compared with Rainfall amounts that is in The period of 2029-2010, 2059-2030 and 2080-2060 by Scenario A2, Average temperature, respectively, 5.82, 8.41 and 14.56 percent and according to scenario B2, respectively, 4.08, 9.06 and 11.42 percent, Increase compared to the baseline  Birjand synoptic station. And the amount of annual rainfall for the three scenarios studied by A2, respectively, +1.46, -2.27 and -8.66 percent compared to the baseline will change. In a given period based on the B2 scenario will also reduce the amount of rainfall.