به‌کارگیری مدل‌های سری زمانی ARIMA در پیش‌بینی خشکسالی هواشناسی استان تهران.

نویسندگان
مرتضی قیصوری 1
مهین کله‌هوئی 2
عارف صابری 3
پروین محمدی 1
1 دانشجوی دکتری علوم و مهندسی آبخیز، گروه احیاء مناطق خشک و کوهستانی، دانشکدۀ منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران
2 دانشجوی دکتری علوم و مهندسی آبخیز، دانشکده منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس و نویسنده مسئول،
3 دانشجوی دکتری، علوم و مهندسی آبخیزداری، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری
چکیده
امروزه منابع آب به‌ یکی از نگرانی­های عمده در مناطق خشک و نیمه‌خشک جهان تبدیل شده ‌است. بارش کم و توزیع نامنظم آن در کشور ایران همراه با جمعیت سریع و افزایش فعالیت‌های کشاورزی، سبب خشک‌سالی‌های اخیر شده‌است. مطالعه حاضر با هدف بررسی و پیش‌بینی خشک‌سالی هواشناسی در استان تهران با استفاده از مدل‌ ARIMA انجام شده‌است. برای ارزیابی شاخص بارش استاندارد (SPI) داده‌ها از هفت ایستگاه بارشی برای دوره 2020 - 2000 مورد استفاده قرار گرفت. سپس مدل ARIMA برای پیش‌بینی خشک‌سالی بر مبنای SPI اجرا، و برای هر ایستگاه بهترین مدل برای پیش‌بینی خشک‌سالی استخراج شد. نتایج نشان داد مدل‌های سری زمانی ARIMA قادر است به درستی تغییرات اقلیمی را مورد ارزیابی قرار دهد. هم‌چنین مطابق نتایج شاخص خشک‌سالی SPI برای دوره پیش‌بینی شده، مشخص شد که در تمام ایستگاه‌های مورد مطالعه وضعیت نزدیک به نرمال را داشته و در سال 2022 تا 2024 شرایط به سمت بهبود وضعیت بارش پیش رفته‌است که با توجه به بارش‌های اخیر در سطح ایران این مدل توانسته به خوبی به مدل‌سازی تغیرات اقلیمی بپردازد. با توجه شاخص SPI  خشک‌سالی در منطقه مورد نظر در وضعیت نزدیک به نرمال قرار دارد، می‌تواند برای مدیریت منابع آبی، حفظ بوم‌سازگان طبیعی و بهبود وضعیت اقلیمی آینده ابزار مناسبی باشد.
کلیدواژه‌ها
استان تهران
شاخص SPI
مدل‌سازی
مدیریت منابع آبی
تغییرات اقلیمی

عنوان مقاله English

Application of ARIMA time series models for forecasting meteorological drought in Tehran province

نویسندگان English

Morteza Gheysouri 1
Mahin Kalehhouei 2
Aref Saberi 3
Parvin Mohammadi 1
چکیده English

Today, water resources have become one of the major concerns in arid and semi-arid regions of the world. Low rainfall and its irregular distribution in Iran, along with rapid population growth and increased agricultural activities, have caused recent droughts. The present study was conducted with the aim of investigating and forecasting meteorological drought in Tehran province using the ARIMA model. Data from seven rainfall stations for the period 2000-2020 were used to evaluate the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Then, the ARIMA model for drought prediction was implemented based on SPI, and the best model for drought prediction was extracted for each station. The results showed that ARIMA time series models can correctly evaluate climate change. Also, according to the results of the SPI drought index for the forecasted period, it was found that the situation was close to normal in all the studied stations, and from 2022 to 2024, the conditions have progressed towards improving the rainfall situation, which according to the recent rainfall in Iran, this model It has been able to model climate changes well. According to the SPI index, the drought in the target area is close to normal, it can be a suitable tool for managing water resources, preserving natural ecosystems, and improving the future climate.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

SPI index
Tehran province
Time series
Water resources management
Climate change
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