پیش‌بینی بارش و درجه حرارت تحت سناریوهای تغییر اقلیم با استفاده از مدل CanESM2 (مطالعه موردی ایستگاه مشهد)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
فرشاد سلیمانی ساردو 1
طیبه مصباح‌زاده 2
منصوره کوهی 3
1 عضو هیات علمی
2 استادیار دانشکده منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تهران،
3 عضو گروه پژوهشی مخاطرات و تغییر اقلیم، پژوهشکده اقلیم شناسی و تغییر اقلیم
10.22034/wmji.2023.710719
چکیده
گرم شدن جو، کاهش بارش، خشک‌سالی‌ها و سیلاب‌ها در طولانی‌مدت منجر به ایجاد پدیده‌ای تغییر اقلیم در اکوسیستم‌ها طبیعی و غیرطبیعی می‌شوند. هم‌چنین افزایش گازهای گلخانه‌ای  که باعث افزایش درجه حرارت شده نیز  این پدیده را تشدید می‌کنند. تغییر اقلیم می‌تواند جنبه‌های مختلف شهر مشهد را  ازنظر موقعیت جغرافیایی، گردشگری و توریسم تحت تأثیر قرار دهد. در این مطالعه با استفاده مدل CanESM2 و داده‌های بارش و درجه حرارت ایستگاه مشهد در دوره 1961 الی 2005 به پیش‌بینی آن‌ها در آینده نزدیک 2030 الی 2060 و آینده دور 2070 الی 2100 تحت سناریوهای تغییر اقلیم RCP پرداخته شد. نتایج نشان داد که مدل CanEMS2 مطابقت خوبی با داده‌های مشاهداتی دارد و از آن می‌توان جهت شبیه‌سازی داده‌ها در دوره‌های آینده استفاده کرد نتایج شبیه‌سازی نشان داد که مقدار بارش در دوره آینده نزدیک کاهش پیدا می‌کند اما در دوره آینده دور این پارامتر افزایش خواهد یافت اما درجه حرارت در دوره آینده (نزدیک و دور) افزایش‌یافته و پدیده گرمایش جهانی را تشدید می‌کند. نتایج این تحقیق می‌تواند برای مدیریت محیط‌زیست استفاده نمود و خدمات و صنایعی که منجر به افزایش گازهای گلخانه‌ای  در شهر مشهد خواهند شد را مورد سیاست‌گذاری و برنامه‌ریزی صحیح در جهت کاهش انتشار گازهای گلخانه‌ای هدایت نمود.
کلیدواژه‌ها
ایستگاه سینوپتیک مشهد
بارش و دما
سناریوهای RCP
مدل‌سازی
مدل‌های ریزمقیاس نمایی

عنوان مقاله English

Precipitation and temperature forecasting under climate change scenarios using the CanESM2 model (case study: Mashhad station)

نویسندگان English

Farshad Soleimani Sardoo 1
Tayebeh Mesbahzadeh 2
Mansooreh koohi 3
1 university of Jiroft, Academic Staff
2 university of Tehran
3 Member of Disasters and Climate Change Research Group- CRI (ASMERC)
چکیده English

Long-term warming of the atmosphere, decrease in precipitation, drought and floods lead to the creation of climate change phenomena in natural and unnatural ecosystems. In addition, an increase in greenhouse gases, which cause the temperature to rise, also increases this phenomenon. Climate change affects different aspects of Mashhad city in terms of geographical location, tourism and tourism. In this study, using the CanESM2 model and the precipitation and temperature data of Mashhad station from 1961 to 2005, they were predicted in the near future from 2030 to 2060 and from 2070 to 2100 under RCP climate change scenarios. The results showed that the CanEMS2 model is in good agreement with the observational data and can be used to simulate the data in the future period. The simulation results show that the amount of precipitation will decrease in the near future, but not in the distant future. This parameter will also increase, but the temperature will increase in the future (near and far) and the phenomenon of global warming will increase. The results of this research can be used for environmental management and the services and industries that will lead to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions in Mashhad city can be used for proper policy and planning in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Climate change
Precipitation and temperature
CanEMS2 model
Climate change scenarios
Mashhad synoptic station
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