نویسندگان
1
عضو هیات علمی
2
استادیار دانشکده منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تهران،
3
عضو گروه پژوهشی مخاطرات و تغییر اقلیم، پژوهشکده اقلیم شناسی و تغییر اقلیم
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نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
10.22034/wmji.2023.710719
چکیده
گرم شدن جو، کاهش بارش، خشکسالیها و سیلابها در طولانیمدت منجر به ایجاد پدیدهای تغییر اقلیم در اکوسیستمها طبیعی و غیرطبیعی میشوند. همچنین افزایش گازهای گلخانهای که باعث افزایش درجه حرارت شده نیز این پدیده را تشدید میکنند. تغییر اقلیم میتواند جنبههای مختلف شهر مشهد را ازنظر موقعیت جغرافیایی، گردشگری و توریسم تحت تأثیر قرار دهد. در این مطالعه با استفاده مدل CanESM2 و دادههای بارش و درجه حرارت ایستگاه مشهد در دوره 1961 الی 2005 به پیشبینی آنها در آینده نزدیک 2030 الی 2060 و آینده دور 2070 الی 2100 تحت سناریوهای تغییر اقلیم RCP پرداخته شد. نتایج نشان داد که مدل CanEMS2 مطابقت خوبی با دادههای مشاهداتی دارد و از آن میتوان جهت شبیهسازی دادهها در دورههای آینده استفاده کرد نتایج شبیهسازی نشان داد که مقدار بارش در دوره آینده نزدیک کاهش پیدا میکند اما در دوره آینده دور این پارامتر افزایش خواهد یافت اما درجه حرارت در دوره آینده (نزدیک و دور) افزایشیافته و پدیده گرمایش جهانی را تشدید میکند. نتایج این تحقیق میتواند برای مدیریت محیطزیست استفاده نمود و خدمات و صنایعی که منجر به افزایش گازهای گلخانهای در شهر مشهد خواهند شد را مورد سیاستگذاری و برنامهریزی صحیح در جهت کاهش انتشار گازهای گلخانهای هدایت نمود.
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