Statistical estimation of the maximum possible 24-hour rainfall in the Bakhtegan catchment area

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Gholamhossein Akbari 1
Iman Lotfi 2
Meysam Nejatbakhsh 3
1 Associate Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Water and Hydraulic Structures, Bojnord University
2 Master's student, Department of Civil Engineering, Bojnord University
3 PhD student of the department of Civil Engineering, Sistan and Baluchistan University
10.22034/wmji.2023.710724
Abstract
The greatest depth of precipitation possible for a given duration is called probable maximum precipitation denoted by PMP. Probable maximum precipitation is generally evaluated using two meteorological and statistical methods. In this research, the Hershfield's statistical methods and conventional torque method were used to evaluate probable maximum precipitation of Bakhtegan Watershed. In Hershfield's equation, the frequency factor was considered to be constant at 15. Since this factor might not be consistent to all the stations in different climatic conditions, then, in this study, the frequency factor in Bakhtegan Watershed was obtained based on the maximum precipitation of 24h, at 35 meteorological stations in three statistical Hershfield's methods І , Hershfield's ІІ, Hershfield's ІІ with eliminated outlier data. Afterwards, the probable maximum precipitation of 24h in Watershed's stations were analyzed and calculated for all three methods. In this study, the conventional torque method was also used for 17 stations having more than 30 years of precipitation statistics. In this method, after performing data homogeneity test (Mann-Kendall) and removing outlier data, maximum precipitation amount was performed for normal distribution, two-parameter lognormal, three-parameter lognormal, Pearson type-III, Log-Pearson type-III and Gumbel was using SMADA software; and the best frequency distribution was obtained using RMSE test for each station. Using RRMSE test for all stations, it is found that Gumbel distribution was the most appropriate one; by the use of Gumbel distribution, 24-h PMP with various return period is obtained for each station. In addition, for each approaches, a maximum 24-h PMP watershed precipitation was plotted to show the spatial distribution.
Keywords
Abundance coefficient
Gumbel distribution
Hershfield's methods
Probable Maximum precipitation
RRMSE Test

  1. Afzali, Z., Faridhosseini, A., and Bakhtiari, B. 2019. Investigating the effect of climate change on the maximum possible 24-hour rainfall in a semi-humid climate. Iran water resources research, 15(2): 176-188. (In Persian)

    1. Afzali, Z., Bakhtiari, B., and Qaderi, K. 2018. Probable maximum precipitation estimation in a humid climate. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 18(11): 3109-3119. (In Persian)
    2. Ahmadi, M., Lashkari, H., and Azimi, P. 2015. The highest possible 24-hour rainfall and its impact on the hydrological hazards of the southwestern Caspian region. Journal of Spatial Analysis of Environmental Hazards, 2(2): 69-83. (In Persian)
    3. Al Mamun, A., Bin Salleh, M. N., and Noor, H. M. 2018. Estimation of short-duration rainfall intensity from daily rainfall values in Klang Valley, Malaysia. Applied Water Science, 8(7): 1-10.
    4. Avino, A., Manfreda, S., Cimorelli, L., and Pianese, D. 2021. Trend of annual maxium rainfall in Campania region (SouthernItaly). Hydrological Processes, 35(12), e14447.
    5. Bahrami, F., Renjber, A., and Fatahi, B. 2018. Estimation of Maximum Probable Precipitation (PMP) in the Qamroud Watershed. Applied Research in Geographical Sciences, 18(50). (In Persion)
    6. Bakhtiari, B., Afzali Groh, Z., and Kaderi, K. 2015. Design of PMP Calculator software for the purpose of statistical output of maximum possible rainfall (case study: selected stations of Gilan province). Rain catchment surface systems, 4(1): 1-12. (In Persian)
    7. Bakhtiari, B., Afzali Groh, Z., and Kaderi, K. 2016. Estimating the maximum possible 24-hour rainfall with the Hershfield statistical model in the Qarasu watershed in Golestan province. Iran Water Resources Research, 12(1). (In Persian)
    8. Bakhtiari, B., and Kaderi, K. 2017. Extraction of depth-area-continuity curves in order to estimate the maximum possible regional rainfall in Fars province. Iran water resources research, 13(2): 199-206. (In Persian)
    9. Benestad, R. E., Parding, K. M., Erlandsen, H. B., and Mezghani, A. 2019. A simple equation to study changes in rainfall statistics. Environmental Research Letters, 14(8): 084017.
    10. Dauji, S., Srivastava, P. K., and Bhargava, K. 2021. Site-specific factors to derive maximum 1-hourly to 6-hourly continuous rainfall from daily extreme rainfall on west coast of India. Transactions of the Indian National Academy of Engineering, 6(3): 857-867.
    11. Emmanouil, S., Langousis, A., Nikolopoulos, E. I., and Anagnostou, E. N. 2020. Quantitative assessment of annual maxima, peaks-over-threshold and multifractal parametric approaches in estimating intensity-duration-frequency curves from short rainfall records. Journal of Hydrology, 589, 125151.
    12. FarmanAra, M., and Bakhtiari, B. 2019. Evaluation of two physical and statistical methods in estimating the maximum possible rainfall in Bushehr province. Iranian Irrigation and Drainage Journal, 6(13): 1612-1622. (In Persian)
    13. Hanafi, A. 2021. A study of the maximum 24-hour rainfall in order to estimate the maximum possible flood in the Aji Chai Basin. Journal of Geographical Sciences, Mashhad Branch, 17(36): 163-182. (In Persian)
    14. Khademi, M., Soltani, S., and Ghasemi, M. 2018. Determining the maximum probable flood return period using HEC-HMS model and statistical methods in Eskandari watershed, Iran Watershed Association, 12th year, 40. (In Persion)
    15. Lopez-Rodriguez, F., Garcia-Sanz-Calcedo, J., Moral-Garcia, F. J., and Garcia-Conde, A. J. 2019. Statistical study of rainfall control: The Dagum distribution and applicability to the Southwest of Spain. Water, 11(3): 453.
    16. Mahdavi, M. 2007. Book of Applied Hydrology (Volume II), Tehran University Press, Tehran, Iran. (In Persian)
    17. Masereka, E. M., Ochieng, G. M., and Snyman, J. 2018. Statistical analysis of annual maximum daily rainfall for Nelspruit and its environs. Jàmbá: Journal of Disaster Risk Studies, 10(1): 1-10.
    18. Merianji, Z., and Abbasi, H. 2015. Zoning probability of occurrence of maximum daily rainfall in Hamedan province. Geographical Information Quarterly, 25(100). (In Persian)
    19. Miniussi, A., and Marani, M. 2020. Estimation of daily rainfall extremes through the metastatistical extreme value distribution: Uncertainty minimization and implications for trend detection. Water Resources Research, 56(7): e2019WR026535.
    20. Moccia, B., Mineo, C., Ridolfi, E., Russo, F., and Napolitano, F. 2021. Probability distributions of daily rainfall extremes in Lazio and Sicily, Italy, and design rainfall inferences. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 33, 100771.
    21. Morbidelli, R., Saltalippi, C., Dari, J., and Flammini, A. 2021. Effect of Time-Resolution of Rainfall Data on Trend Estimation for Annual Maximum Depths with a Duration of 24 Hours. Water, 13(22): 3264.
    22. Mozayedi, A., and Dostmoradi, S. 2011 estimation of the maximum possible 24-hour rainfall using normal moment and Hershfield method in Kermanshah province, 4th Water Resources Management Conference, Amir Kabir University of Technology, Tehran.(In Persian)
    23. Nguyen, T. H. 2016. Statistical modeling of extreme rainfall processes (SMExRain): a decision support tool for extreme rainfall frequency analyses. Procedia Engineering, 154, 624-630.
    24. Pelosi, A., Chirico, G. B., Furcolo, P., and Villani, P. 2022. Regional Assessment of Sub-Hourly Annual Rainfall Maxima. Water, 14(7):1179.
    25. Qeydari, Mohammad Hossein and Telluri, Abdur Rasul (2015). Calculation of the maximum possible rainfall in the Bakhtiari Dam catchment area with a statistical and synoptic perspective. Ferdowsi Civil Engineering Journal, 27(1):189-198. (In Persian)
    26. Regional Water Organization of Fars Province. 2015. Maximum 24-hour rainfall statistics of Bakhtegan basin stations. (In Persion)
    27. Singh, A., Singh, V. P., and Byrd, A. R. 2018. Computation of probable maximum precipitation and its uncertainty. Int. J. Hydrol, 2(4), 504-514.
    28. Wdowikowski, M., Kazmierczak, B., and Ledvinka, O. 2016. Maximum daily rainfall analysis at selected meteorological stations in the upper Lusatian Neisse River basin. Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications, 4.
    29. Zabeti, M., and Akbari, Gh. 2013. Statistical estimation of Hershfield abundance coefficient based on the maximum possible rainfall of 42 hours in the study of Chabahar Basin, 7th National Conference of Civil Engineering, Zahedan.(In Persian)