مدل‌سازی پویای جامع منابع آب تحت سناریو‌های زیست‌محیطی-اقتصادی در منطقه سیستان

نویسندگان
فهیمه بزی 1
علی سردارشهرکی 2
محمود هاشمی تبار 3
ندا علی احمدی 4
1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصادکشاورزی، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران.
2 دانشیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه سیستان وبلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران.
3 استادیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران
4 دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران.
10.22034/wmji.2025.2046476.1091
چکیده
منابع آب در دسترس بشر در نقاط گوناگون جهان به‌طور گسترده مورد بهره‌برداری بی‌رویه قرارگرفته و رشد روز‌افزون جمعیت، تغییر‌پذیری آب‌وهوا و نیاز به مواد غذایی فراوان بر این منبع حیاتی فشار‌های زیادی وارد کرده است. به‌نحوی‌که در حال حاضر کمبود آب یکی از چالش‌های عمده در اکثر کشور‌ها به شمار می‌رود. پژوهش حاضر در منطقه سیستان به بررسی مدل‌سازی اقتصادی جامع منابع آب تحت سناریو‌های زیست‌محیطی دریک افق 31 ساله (1415-1385) با استفاده از روش پویایی سیستم و نرم‌افزار (DSS Vensim)پرداخته است. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد، میزان تقاضا در بخش کشاورزی در سال 1415 از 16033 به 20412 میلیون متر‌مکعب می‌رسد و بیش‌ترین مقدار تقاضا مربوط به بخش شرب و کشاورزی می‌باشد. افزایش راندمان آبیاری در کاهش تقاضای آب بخش کشاورزی و کاهش کمبود آب مؤثر است. اجرای سناریو‌ی توسعه سطح زیرکشت در افق 1415 عرضه محصولات کشاورزی به میزان 1596 تن در سال 1415 افزایش‌یافته است. تقاضای آب در بخش کشاورزی در سال 1402 و 1415 به میزان 16033 و 7465 میلیون مترمکعب کاهش‌یافته است.
کلیدواژه‌ها
سناریو‌های زیست‌محیطی- اقتصادی
مدل‌سازی پویا
منابع آب
منطقه سیستان

عنوان مقاله English

Comprehensive dynamic modeling of water resources under environmental-economic scenarios in the Sistan region

نویسندگان English

Fahimeh Bazi 1
Ali Sardar Shahraki 2
Mahmood Hashemi Tabar 3
Neda Aliahmadi 4
1 PhD student in Agricultural Economics, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran.
2 Associate Professor of Agriculture Economics, Faculty of Management and Economic, University of Sistan and Baluchestan Zahedan, Iran
3 Assistant Professor of Agricultural Economics, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran
4 PhD in Agricultural Economics, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran.
چکیده English

Water resources available to humans in various parts of the world have been widely exploited and the ever-increasing population growth, climate variability and the need for abundant food have put a lot of pressure on this vital resource. Currently, water shortage is one of the major challenges in most countries. The current research in Sistan region has investigated the comprehensive economic modeling of water resources under environmental scenarios in a 31-year horizon (2006-2036) using the system dynamics method and software (DSS Vensim). The results of the research showed that the amount of demand in the agricultural sector in 2015 increased from 16033 to 20412 m3, and the highest amount of demand is related to the drinking and agricultural sectors. Increasing irrigation efficiency is effective in reducing the water demand of the agricultural sector and reducing the water shortage. The implementation of the scenario of the development of the cultivated area in the horizon of 1415, the supply of agricultural products has increased by 1596 tons in 1415. Water demand in the agricultural sector has decreased by 16033 and 7465 in 1402 and 1415.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Dynamic Modeling
Economic environmental scenario
Sistan Region
Water Resources
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