Assessment and Prediction of Long-Term Changes in Climatic Variables in the Quchan Region
Authors
1
Professor، Department of Watershed Management، Faculty of Natural Resources، Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University، Sari، Iran
2
PhD Candidate in Watershed Management, Faculty of Natural Resources, Sari University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Sari, Iran
3
Watershed PhD student، Department of Watershed Management، Faculty of Natural Resources، Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University، Sari، Iran
10.22034/wmji.2025.2067040.1122
Abstract
The main objective of this study is to monitor and evaluate the trends of climatic parameters—including maximum, minimum, and mean temperature; maximum, minimum, and mean relative humidity; precipitation; and evaporation—on an annual scale over a 30-year period (1992–2022) in Quchan County. To achieve this objective, the Mann–Kendall trend test, Sen’s slope estimator, and Spearman’s rank correlation test were employed. In addition, the future impacts of climate change on these parameters were assessed using the SDSM 6.1 model and RCP scenarios based on the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the IPCC, across three 25-year time periods. The trend analysis results indicated that the Mann–Kendall and Spearman methods produced consistent outcomes. The Mann–Kendall test revealed that maximum temperature showed a non-significant increasing trend (Z = 0.952) with a positive Sen’s slope. In contrast, minimum temperature (Z = –2.58, p = 0.01) and mean temperature (Z = –2.77, p = 0.006) exhibited significant decreasing trends. Mean relative humidity demonstrated a significant upward trend (Z = 2.85, p = 0.004), whereas evaporation (Z = 1.135, p = 0.256) and 24-hour precipitation (Z = 0.69, p = 0.486) showed no statistically significant trends. The findings of this research can be utilized to support effective planning for sustainable natural resource management and to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change in the study area.
Keywords
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