A Multi‑Criteria Approach (AHP & ANP) for Cropping Pattern Optimization in the Bilavar Plain, Kermanshah Province:

Authors
shahram Gorgani 1
Maryam Hafezparast Mavaddat 2
1 Ph.D. Candidate in Water Science and Engineering – Water Resources, Razi University, Kermanshah, Iran.
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Water Science and Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Razi University, Kermanshah, Iran.
10.22034/wmji.2025.2070389.1127
Abstract
 Given population growth and limited food resources, achieving an optimal cropping pattern has become inevitable. In this regard, cropping pattern optimization is one of the most effective strategies for improving agricultural productivity. This study aims to identify and rank different cropping pattern alternatives in the Bilavar Plain, Kermanshah Province, by considering technical–agronomic, economic, social, and environmental dimensions using multi‑criteria decision‑making methods—Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Analytic Network Process (ANP). In the first step, multiple criteria, sub‑criteria, and potential options—including the existing cropping pattern, Economic Pattern (1), Economic Pattern (2), Low‑Water‑Use Pattern (1), and Low‑Water‑Use Pattern (2)—were determined. Subsequently, the criteria and sub‑criteria were weighted, and the alternatives were prioritized using the Super Decisions software based on AHP and ANP methodologies. Results indicated that under the AHP method, Economic Pattern (2), Low‑Water‑Use Pattern (1), and the existing pattern ranked first, second, and third with final weights of 0.29, 0.21, and 0.16, respectively. Under ANP, Economic Pattern (2) achieved the highest priority (0.35), followed by Economic Pattern (1) (0.25) and the existing pattern (0.15). These differences highlight the importance of considering interdependencies among criteria and sub‑criteria as well as the complexity of decision‑making in agricultural analyses. The findings demonstrate that the integration of AHP and ANP provides a powerful tool to combine technical and economic complexities in agricultural water resource management. It is recommended that policymakers employ these models in designing supportive policies—particularly regarding input subsidies and guaranteed purchase of water‑efficient crops—to ensure the sustainability of agricultural production in the Bilavar Plain.
Keywords
Agricultural Water Management
Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)
Analytic Network Process (ANP)
Decision‑Making
Pairwise Comparisons
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