Precipitation and temperature forecasting under climate change scenarios using the CanESM2 model (case study: Mashhad station)

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Farshad Soleimani Sardoo 1
Tayebeh Mesbahzadeh 2
Mansooreh koohi 3
1 university of Jiroft, Academic Staff
2 university of Tehran
3 Member of Disasters and Climate Change Research Group- CRI (ASMERC)
10.22034/wmji.2023.710719
Abstract
Long-term warming of the atmosphere, decrease in precipitation, drought and floods lead to the creation of climate change phenomena in natural and unnatural ecosystems. In addition, an increase in greenhouse gases, which cause the temperature to rise, also increases this phenomenon. Climate change affects different aspects of Mashhad city in terms of geographical location, tourism and tourism. In this study, using the CanESM2 model and the precipitation and temperature data of Mashhad station from 1961 to 2005, they were predicted in the near future from 2030 to 2060 and from 2070 to 2100 under RCP climate change scenarios. The results showed that the CanEMS2 model is in good agreement with the observational data and can be used to simulate the data in the future period. The simulation results show that the amount of precipitation will decrease in the near future, but not in the distant future. This parameter will also increase, but the temperature will increase in the future (near and far) and the phenomenon of global warming will increase. The results of this research can be used for environmental management and the services and industries that will lead to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions in Mashhad city can be used for proper policy and planning in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Keywords
Climate change
Precipitation and temperature
CanEMS2 model
Climate change scenarios
Mashhad synoptic station
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