A Conceptual Model for Sustainable Management of Natural Resources and Agriculture: Strategic Lessons from Drought in Lorestan Province
Authors
1
Assistant Professor, Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Department, Kermanshah Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center, AREEO, Kermanshah, Iran. g.ghaffari@areeo.ac.ir
2
Associate Professor, Drought and Climate Change Research Group, Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Institute, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Iran
3
Associate Professor, Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Department, Lorestan Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center, , AREEO,Iran
10.22034/wmji.2026.2089518.1137
Abstract
This study was conducted to develop a conceptual model for enhancing the resilience of natural ecosystems and promoting sustainable management in the face of recurrent and unavoidable droughts in Lorestan Province, Iran. The research methodology was based on a mixed-methods approach and a systematic review of six major research projects that investigated the biophysical, economic, and managerial dimensions of drought across the Central Zagros region. The findings indicate the occurrence of a climate regime shift in the region during the 1991–2019 period of the Iranian calendar, characterized by a 19.9% decline in cumulative provincial precipitation and a 1.1 °C increase in annual mean temperature. These changes have shortened the return period of severe droughts from 12 to 7 years and shifted production systems from episodic drought conditions toward a semi-permanent and structurally embedded drought regime. The study identifies three strategic anomalies. First, an efficiency paradox, consistent with the Jevons Paradox, was observed whereby a 153% increase in technical water-use efficiency in counties such as Khorramabad, despite improving performance at the local scale, was associated with a 0.8 m decline in groundwater levels and increasing instability at the broader scale. Second, a maladaptation phenomenon was identified in the livestock sector, whereby a shift in herd composition from sheep to goats, adopted as an individual survival strategy, intensified browsing pressure on rangeland vegetation and accelerated rangeland degradation. Third, an erosive resilience pattern was identified in rangeland management, whereby a livestock population exceeding the estimated carrying capacity by 119% effectively contributed to the emergence of a tragedy of the commons. The proposed conceptual model emphasizes the need to shift from emergency management toward structural risk management through five implementation instruments: an early warning system; index-based insurance based on SPI or VHI; smart subsidy targeting; payments for ecosystem services (PES); and diversification of rural livelihoods.
Keywords
1. Belayneh, A., Adamowski, J., Khalil, B., and Ozga-Zielinski, B. 2016. Long-term SPI drought forecasting in the Awash River Basin in Ethiopia using wavelet neural networks and wavelet support vector regression models. Journal of Hydrology, 542, 77-96.
2. Ghaffari, G., and Zand, M. 2025. Scientific-analytical report on the assessment of agricultural and natural resources drought conditions in Lorestan Province. Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Institute (In Persian).
3. Ghermezcheshmeh, B., Goudarzi, M., Zand, M., Hosseini, A., Khalkhali, A., Elmi, S., and Norouzi, K. 2021. Assessment of drought impacts on rainfed agriculture in Lorestan Province. Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Institute (In Persian).
4. Ghermezcheshmeh, B., Zand, M., Kowsari, M. R., Kargar, H., Shokri, A., Alivardlou, M., and Norouzi, K. 2021. Assessment of drought impacts on rangelands in Lorestan Province. Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Institute (In Persian).
5. Ghorbani, K., Paymani, K., Yarahmadi, B., and Agha Shahi, A. 2021. Assessment of drought impacts on the livestock and aquaculture sectors in Lorestan Province and associated mitigation strategies. Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Institute (In Persian).
6. Hardin, G. 1968. The tragedy of the commons. Science, 162(3859), 1243-1248.
7. Hosseini, S. M., Mohammadi, A., and Razavi, S. H. 2011. Analysis of the consequences of drought on nomadic communities in Fars Province. Iranian Social Studies, 5(2), 45-67 (In Persian).
8. Jevons, W. S. 1865. The Coal Question: An Inquiry Concerning the Progress of the Nation, and the Probable Exhaustion of Our Coal-Mines. London: Macmillan and Co.
9. Kahneman, D., and Tversky, A. 1979. Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-291.
10. Kogan, F. N. 1995. Drought detection and monitoring with NOAA polar-orbiting satellites. Remote
Sensing of Environment, 51(1), 1-15.
11. Mekuria, W., and Aynekulu, E. 2013. Exclosure land management for restoring degraded land in communal grazing lands in northern Ethiopia. Land Degradation and Development, 24(6), 528-538.
12. Svoboda, M., and Fuchs, B. 2016. Handbook of drought indicators and indices. World Meteorological Organization and Global Water Partnership.
13. Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Begueria, S., and Lopez-Moreno, J. I. 2010. A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. Journal of Climate, 23(7), 1696-1718.
14. Wilhite, D. A., and Glantz, M. H. 1985. Understanding the drought phenomenon: The role of definitions. Water International, 10(3), 111-120.
15. Zand, M., Ghermezcheshmeh, B., and Ghorbani, K. 2022. Assessment of agricultural and natural resources drought in Lorestan Province. Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Institute (In Persian).
16. Zand, M., Miri, M., Norouzi, A. A., Parhomet, J., Paymani, K., Rezaei, T., Kowsari, M. R., Rahmati, M., and Karimi Sangchini, A. 2022. Estimation of relative rainfed crop yield using the FAPAR index, ground observations, and field data (Case study: Alashtar County). Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Institute (In Persian).
17. Zand, M., Miri, M., Parhomet, J., Paymani, K., Veiskarami, A., Karimi Sangchini, A., Demizadeh, M., and Goudarzi, M. 2021. Assessment of drought impacts on irrigated agriculture in Lorestan Province. Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Institute (In Persian).
18. Sandelowski, M., and Barroso, J. 2007. Handbook for synthesizing qualitative research. Springer Publishing Company.
19. Mann, H. B. 1945. Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica, 13(3), 245-259.
20. Pettitt, A. N. 1979. A non-parametric approach to the change-point problem. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics), 28(2), 126-135.
21. Herrmann, S. M., and Hutchinson, C. F. 2005. The changing contexts of the desertification debate. Journal of Arid Environments, 63(3), 538-555.
22. Wittwer, G. 2011. Confusing policy and catastrophe: Buybacks and drought in the Murray-Darling Basin. Economic Papers: A Journal of Applied Economics and Policy, 30(3), 289-295.
23. Ghaffari, G. (under review). Meteorological drought analysis at Khorramabad synoptic station using SPI, SPEI indices and non-parametric trend tests. Journal of Irrigation Science and Engineering (In Persian).
