پیشبینی تغییرات پارامترهای بارش، دما و تابش تحت سناریوهای اقلیمی مناطق کوهستانی مرتفع البرز میانی
نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1
ندارم
2
دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان
3
مرکز تحقیقات کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری
10.22034/wmji.2024.2026652.1063
چکیده
تغییر اقلیم، از بزرگترین چالشهایی است که بشر در قرن بیستویک با آن مواجه بوده است چراکه میتواند اثرات شدیدی بر منابع آب، کشاورزی، انرژی و حتی زیست اقلیم انسان داشته باشد. هدف از این مطالعه بررسی تغییرات پارامترهای اقلیمی در چهار سایت پلور، رینه، کنگرچال و پشتکوه استان مازندران با استفاده از مدلهای گردش عمومی جو میباشد. دادههای مدلهای IPSL-CM5A-MR و CSIRO-MK36 تحت سناریوهای RCP4/5 و RCP8/5 گزارش پنجم برای ارزیابی تأثیر تغییرات اقلیمی با ریزگردان آماری LARS WG ریزمقیاس شدهاند. پس از انجام واسنجی، صحت سنجی و مدلسازی دادهها در دو ایستگاه (آبعلی و کیاسر) کارایی مدلها ازنظر مقدار انطباق دادههای مشاهدهشده با مقدار شبیهسازیشده با استفاده از شاخص RMSE، R2، MAE ارزیابی گردید. نتایج بهدستآمده نشان داد که مدلهای IPSL-CM5A-MR و CSIRO-MK36 نتایج قابل قبولی به دست میدهند در ایستگاه آبعلی مقدار بارندگی در دوره پایه 08/542 میلیمتر میباشد تحت سناریوهای RCP4/5 و RCP8/5 در هر دو مدل IPSL-CM5A-MR و CSIRO-MK36 در آینده بین سالهای (2060-2021) به میزان 0/97- 0/91 درصد افزایش خواهد داشت. میانگین دمای حداکثر 2/2-1/7 سانتیگراد و دمای حداقل 1/88-1/56 سانتیگراد نسبت به دوره پایه افزایش خواهد داشت. در ایستگاه کیاسر نیز مقدار بارندگی در دوره پایه 528/46 میلیمتر میباشد که تحت سناریوهای RCP4/5 و RCP8/5 در هر دو مدل در آینده بین سالهای (2060-2021) به میزان 0/96- 0/87 درصد افزایش خواهد داشت. میانگین دمای حداکثر 2/18-1/72 سانتیگراد و دمای حداقل 1/82-1/62 سانتیگراد نسبت به دوره پایه افزایش خواهد داشت.
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله English
Investigating changes in precipitation, temperature and radiation parameters under climatic scenarios in the high mountain areas of Middle Alborz
نویسندگان English
mehrnoush parsa
1
hossein barani
2
afshin soltani
2
abdolreza bahremand
2
hassan ghelichnia
3
1
no
2
دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان
3
مرکز تحقیقات کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری
چکیده English
Climate change is one of the biggest challenges that humanity has faced in the 21st century, because it can have severe effects on water resources, agriculture, energy, and even human bioclimate. The purpose of this study is to investigate the changes of climatic parameters in four sites of Plour, Rineh, Kangarchal and Poshtkoh in Mazandaran province using general atmospheric circulation models. For this purpose, the data of IPSL-CM5A-MR and CSIRO-MK36 models under RCP4/5 and RCP8/5 scenarios have been scaled with LARS WG statistical micro-rotator to evaluate the impact of climate change. After carrying out calibration, verification and modeling of data in two stations (Abali and Kiasar), the effectiveness of the models in terms of the amount of compliance of the observed data with the simulated value using the RMSE index, R2, MAE was evaluated. The obtained results showed that IPSL-CM5A-MR and CSIRO-MK36 models obtain acceptable results. Considering that in Abali station, the amount of rainfall in the base period is 542.08 mm under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in both IPSL-CM5A-MR and CSIRO-MK36 models in the future between (2021-2060) will increase by 0.91-0.97 percent. The average maximum temperature will increase by 1.7-2.2 centigrade and minimum temperature by 1.56-1.88 centigrade compared to the base period. Accordingly, the amount of rainfall in the base period in Kiasar station is 528.46 mm, which under the scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in both models in the future between the years (2021-2060) is 96. 0-87% will increase. The average maximum temperature will increase by 1.72-18.2 centigrade and the minimum temperature will increase by 1.62-1.82 centigrade compared to the base period.
کلیدواژهها English
Climate change
Global circulation model
Trend
Simulation
Mazandaran
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